Predicated on the increasing abundance of electronic health records, we investigate the problem of inferring individualized treatment effects using observational data. Stemming from the potential outcomes model, we propose a novel multi-task learning framework in which factual and counterfactual outcomes are modeled as the outputs of a function in a vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert space (vvRKHS). We develop a nonparametric Bayesian method for learning the treatment effects using a multi-task Gaussian process (GP) with a linear coregionalization kernel as a prior over the vvRKHS. The Bayesian approach allows us to compute individualized measures of confidence in our estimates via pointwise credible intervals, which are crucial for realizing the full potential of precision medicine. The impact of selection bias is alleviated via a risk-based empirical Bayes method for adapting the multi-task GP prior, which jointly minimizes the empirical error in factual outcomes and the uncertainty in (unobserved) counterfactual outcomes. We conduct experiments on observational datasets for an interventional social program applied to premature infants, and a left ventricular assist device applied to cardiac patients wait-listed for a heart transplant. In both experiments, we show that our method significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art.

Predicated on the increasing abundance of electronic health records, we investigate the problem of inferring individualized treatment effects using observational data. Stemming from the potential outcomes model, we propose a novel multi-task learning framework in which factual and counterfactual outcomes are modeled as the outputs of a function in a vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert space (vvRKHS). We develop a nonparametric Bayesian method for learning the treatment effects using a multi-task Gaussian process (GP) with a linear coregion-alization kernel as a prior over the vvRKHS. The Bayesian approach allows us to compute individualized measures of confidence in our estimates via pointwise credible intervals, which are crucial for realizing the full potential of precision medicine. The impact of selection bias is alleviated via a risk-based empirical Bayes method for adapting the multi-task GP prior, which jointly minimizes the empirical error in factual outcomes and the uncertainty in (unobserved) counterfactual outcomes. We conduct experiments on observational datasets for an inter-ventional social program applied to premature infants, and a left ventricular assist device applied to cardiac patients wait-listed for a heart transplant. In both experiments, we show that our method significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art.

Thousands of patients worldwide are waiting for a potentially life-saving donor. Thousands of patients worldwide are waiting for a potentially life-saving donor. Doctors have developed an AI tool that could reduce wasted efforts to transplant organs by 60%. Thousands of patients worldwide are waiting for a potentially life-saving donor, and more candidates are stuck on waiting lists than there are available organs. Recently, in cases where people need a liver transplant, access has been expanded by using donors who die after cardiac arrest.

Health Diseases Donor organ's blood type altered for the first time Scientists removed the blood's antigens to make a kidney the universal type-O. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent every weekday. In a world first, researchers at the University of British Columbia (UBC) in Canada successfully transplanted a human donor kidney that they artificially swapped from someone with type-A blood to the universal type-O. The breakthrough may pave the way for the creation of a universal donor blood supply, as well as the ability to pull off similar results with other vital organs. The riskiest and often most difficult part of an organ transplant procedure is the distinct possibility that a patients' body will reject the organ itself .

Transplant-organs are a scarce medical resource.

Decisions about managing patients on the heart transplant waitlist are currently made by committees of doctors who consider multiple factors, but the process remains largely ad-hoc. With the growing volume of longitudinal patient, donor, and organ data collected by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) since 2018, there is increasing interest in analytical approaches to support clinical decision-making at the time of organ availability. In this study, we benchmark machine learning models that leverage longitudinal waitlist history data for time-dependent, time-to-event modeling of waitlist mortality. We train on 23,807 patient records with 77 variables and evaluate both survival prediction and discrimination at a 1-year horizon. Our best model achieves a C-Index of 0.94 and AUROC of 0.89, significantly outperforming previous models. Key predictors align with known risk factors while also revealing novel associations. Our findings can support urgency assessment and policy refinement in heart transplant decision making.

Predicated on the increasing abundance of electronic health records, we investigate the problem of inferring individualized treatment effects using observational data. Stemming from the potential outcomes model, we propose a novel multitask learning framework in which factual and counterfactual outcomes are modeled as the outputs of a function in a vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert space (vvRKHS). We develop a nonparametric Bayesian method for learning the treatment effects using a multi-task Gaussian process (GP) with a linear coregionalization kernel as a prior over the vvRKHS. The Bayesian approach allows us to compute individualized measures of confidence in our estimates via pointwise credible intervals, which are crucial for realizing the full potential of precision medicine. The impact of selection bias is alleviated via a risk-based empirical Bayes method for adapting the multi-task GP prior, which jointly minimizes the empirical error in factual outcomes and the uncertainty in (unobserved) counterfactual outcomes. We conduct experiments on observational datasets for an interventional social program applied to premature infants, and a left ventricular assist device applied to cardiac patients wait-listed for a heart transplant. In both experiments, we show that our method significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art.

Organ transplantation serves as the primary therapeutic strategy for end-stage organ failures. However, allograft rejection is a common complication of organ transplantation. Histological assessment is essential for the timely detection and diagnosis of transplant rejection and remains the gold standard. Nevertheless, the traditional histochemical staining process is time-consuming, costly, and labor-intensive. Here, we present a panel of virtual staining neural networks for lung and heart transplant biopsies, which digitally convert autofluorescence microscopic images of label-free tissue sections into their brightfield histologically stained counterparts, bypassing the traditional histochemical staining process. Specifically, we virtually generated Hematoxylin and Eosin (H&E), Masson's Trichrome (MT), and Elastic Verhoeff-Van Gieson (EVG) stains for label-free transplant lung tissue, along with H&E and MT stains for label-free transplant heart tissue. Subsequent blind evaluations conducted by three board-certified pathologists have confirmed that the virtual staining networks consistently produce high-quality histology images with high color uniformity, closely resembling their well-stained histochemical counterparts across various tissue features. The use of virtually stained images for the evaluation of transplant biopsies achieved comparable diagnostic outcomes to those obtained via traditional histochemical staining, with a concordance rate of 82.4% for lung samples and 91.7% for heart samples. Moreover, virtual staining models create multiple stains from the same autofluorescence input, eliminating structural mismatches observed between adjacent sections stained in the traditional workflow, while also saving tissue, expert time, and staining costs.

Liver allograft failure occurs in approximately 20% of liver transplant recipients within five years post-transplant, leading to mortality or the need for retransplantation. Providing an accurate and interpretable model for individualized risk estimation of graft failure is essential for improving post-transplant care. To this end, we introduce the Model for Allograft Survival (MAS), a simple linear risk score that outperforms other advanced survival models. Using longitudinal patient follow-up data from the United States (U.S.), we develop our models on 82,959 liver transplant recipients and conduct multi-site evaluations on 11 regions. Additionally, by testing on a separate non-U.S. cohort, we explore the out-of-distribution generalization performance of various models without additional fine-tuning, a crucial property for clinical deployment. We find that the most complex models are also the ones most vulnerable to distribution shifts despite achieving the best in-distribution performance. Our findings not only provide a strong risk score for predicting long-term graft failure but also suggest that the routine machine learning pipeline with only in-distribution held-out validation could create harmful consequences for patients at deployment.

Animal-to-human transplant science took a major step forward this week after surgeons transplanted a kidney and a liver from pigs into humans. In Boston, a 62-year-old terminal patient received a genetically-altered kidney from a pig in a world first earlier this month. The new organ began to produce urine almost immediately, doctors at Mass General said, and the patient is stable and walking. Meanwhile, in China, a 50-year-old brain-dead man became the first to receive a genetically-engineered liver from a pig -- which was kept in his body for 10 days. Surgeons say the organ's color and texture appeared'normal' upon extraction and that it was even secreting bile -- a fluid aiding digestion.